What Nigel Farage means for the right wing in the UK.

What Nigel Farage means for the right wing in the UK.

Nigel Farage, founding member of UKIP and now leader of Reform UK has announced that he has changed his mind from supporting Donald Trump in the presidential election in November, to campaigning for and leading the right wing alternative party; Reform UK. Farage is campaigning in Clacton, Essex: a staunch Leave area and conservative hotspot, meaning Farage has favourable odds to at least come second in the constituency. 

This is a real blow to the conservative party as the focus of their campaign has been to fight to keep hold of the right-wing electorate as for months now the Tories have bled voters to Reform UK. Recent polling suggests that Reform UK are 13 points behind the Tories; however, since early 2023, Reform UK’s polling has doubled from around 5 points to 11 points on the 2^nd of June this year. The Labour party remain around 20 points ahead of the Conservatives and look on track to win the election. With the leadership of Reform UK now in the hands of Nigel Farage, does the conservative party stand a chance at being the man opposition in the autumn. Farage is the most popular politician according to YouGov, with a popularity rating of 38%. compared to 2^nd place, Keir Starmer at 30% and Rishi Sunak at 20% in 13^th place. It is clear to see that the conservatives not only have to contend with Keir Starmer and the Labour party, but also the threat from the right, Nigel Farage.

With Reform UK as the third largest party, beating the Liberal Democrats by one point, will Farage be able to widen the gap between Reform UK and the Lib Dems? The Lib Dems have polled steadily at 10% since 2020, however they did have a spike during the summer of 2022 with a high of around 13%. The largest % Reform UK have had since 2020 was also around 13% in the spring of this year. Farage will have to combat the conservatives, their biggest rival, and the Liberal Democrats, to remain the third largest party in terms of vote share predictions. The main group of voters attracted to Reform UK are pensioners, Brexiteers, and right wingers disillusioned by the recent conservative party. What most of these people have in common are that they are homeowners. This means that Reform UK should try to appeal to landlords and first time buyers as winning these votes could count for a massive proportion of vote share as statistics show around 63% of people in England and Wales own their own home, according to Finder.com.  

Written by Ian Lorimer.